Chart: Lithium-ion battery prices are falling again

But the Covid years were a strange time, and the global lithium-ion battery industry seems to have shaken off the malaise. Global pack prices fell 14% this year to a record low of $139 per kilowatt-hour, according to BNEF. Lithium prices softened, components got cheaper, and massive new battery factories opened up. Demand for batteries grew an astonishing 53% this year, but even that fell short of some manufacturers&#; expectations, which pushed prices down further.

With competitive price and timely delivery, Energyland sincerely hope to be your supplier and partner.

That $139 per kilowatt-hour figure is actually a blend of different batteries from several categories, like electric vehicles, stationary grid storage and buses. Electric vehicle packs, which have the most scale of the bunch, have already hit $128 per kilowatt-hour. This metric matters because batteries generate most of the cost of electric vehicles, so more affordable batteries mean more affordable EVs. And the cheaper grid storage gets, the easier it will be to shift renewable generation into the hours when the sun or wind aren&#;t available.

Just how cheap do battery packs need to get? At least for EVs, battery watchers have long described the $100-per-kilowatt-hour threshold as a mythic boundary past which cost-competitiveness would be assured. The U.S. Department of Energy staked out the further target of &#;$80 per kilowatt-hour manufactured cost for a battery pack by for a 300-mile range electric vehicle&#; in its Energy Storage Grand Challenge.

If prices continue to fall at roughly the pace they did this year, the industry will blow past $100 per kilowatt-hour in a handful of years &#; and DOE&#;s goal looks eminently achievable. 

This is part of a series on EV batteries and degradation. Here are some resources if you want to go deeper.

How much does an EV battery replacement cost?

Electric car battery replacement costs outside of warranty can range from $6,500 to $20,000, depending on the size and manufacturer, but these out-of-pocket repairs are extremely rare.

This is partly due to EV batteries lasting longer than many people expected. While the overall rate of replacement in the Recurrent community is only 2.5%, the highest rate of battery replacements come from the very first generation of EVs on the road. These cars are now 14 years old.

Are replacement costs going up or down?

The cost of batteries fluctuate - going up some months and down others - but the overall cost trend is declining.

As battery prices continue to decline, the price you would pay today is different than the price you would pay next year or in 5 years. in , the Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the Wharton School for Business aggregated data found across academia, news, search engines, experts within the industry, and public statements by manufacturers. 

They found a 16% decline in battery pack cost between and . The authors estimated in that the average cost of battery packs was $161/kWh. With that estimate, in , the cost of an out-of-warranty 100 kWh battery, as is common in Tesla long range vehicles, would be at least $16,100 before labor, taxes, etc. If the trend in battery price reduction stays constant, then by the price in $ should be ~$56/kWh, or $5,600 to replace a 100 kWh battery.

That&#;s a big change in how much an EV battery costs to replace. 

However, it's worth noting that the overall downward market trend in the price of lithium faltered in - and the price of battery components actually began to rise a bit.

As of March , the price is coming back down, though, and has fallen nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. High demand for old lithium ion batteries will keep prices for battery replacements stable for at least another year.

&#;
How are battery replacement costs determined?

The cost of an electric car battery can be up to half the value of the car, depending on the type of vehicle (luxury vs economy) and battery size. A bigger battery has more minerals and costs more to produce.

According to an April report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the projected cost by should be $120/kWh to $135/kWh. This is less generous than the Wharton analysis, suggesting by a 100 kWh battery replacement out of warranty may cost up to $13,500.

The ICCT report does note that battery cost forecasting has consistently under-predicted actual battery cost reduction. They provide a caveat that if a slightly rosier analysis is performed, battery pack-level costs could be $89/kWh by and $56/kWh by . 

According to the latest forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), in Dec the average price of battery capacity was $137/kWh, with an expectation of average price close to $100/kWh by , seven years sooner than Bloomberg NEF models suggested in . Cited within the ICCT report, the BNEF models estimate that by , average battery pack level costs will be $62/kWh. A 100 kWh pack may cost at least $6,200 to replace by .

Back in , McKinsey reported that the average battery pack price was ~$227/kWh, with projections estimating average EV battery pack prices below $190/kWh by the end of . Those expectations were clearly exceeded as demonstrated by the Bloomberg NEF report just described. 

Does car insurance cover an EV battery replacement?

Standard car insurance does not normally cover the cost of replacement unless the car was in an accident or had something happen to damage the battery.

Unexpected battery failures would be covered by the manufacturer warranty or most extended warranties &#; Recurrent has several partners who offer extended EV warranties if you are concerned about battery health.

What are some real-world cost examples?

The real-world cost of an electric car battery is more than simply the battery pack. The total price tag would include labor costs, tax policy, business models, and other externalities related to a battery replacement. We don't things like business profits and markups, nor if a car bought in will benefit from battery pack cost reduction in .

Additionally, this analysis does not consider the possibility of replacing only parts of battery packs that have gone bad, which may be covered by warranty. Furthermore, it is difficult to anticipate the development of third party battery replacement services independent of the original manufacturers. 

However, in order to get a glimpse into some real world examples of battery replacement costs that EV drivers have experienced, I found some helpful examples. Overall, it doesn&#;t appear that EV owners are benefiting from the Bloomberg reported average of $137/kWh price.

Here is what I found on the following electric vehicles. 

Contact us to discuss your requirements of Rack Lithium Battery. Our experienced sales team can help you identify the options that best suit your needs.

• BMW i3
• Chevrolet Bolt
• Chevrolet Volt
• Hyundai Ioniq PHEV
• Nissan Leaf
• Tesla Model 3
• Tesla Model S
• VW e-Golf

There is lots more on each one of those vehicles. Keep scrolling to see the details!

&#;

BMW i3 Battery Replacement Cost

• A BMWi3 battery pack with originally 22 kWh of capacity, but with approximately 17.14 kWh of capacity today is selling for $2,500 on ebay. This equates to roughly $145/kWh. 
• In , BMW reported that replacing an i3 battery would cost about $16,000. This was for the - model years which have 22 kWh packs, equating to $727/ kWh in real dollars. 
• InsideEV reported in that a 21.6 kWh battery pack would cost $13,725, equating to $635/kWh. These prices were based on an online parts ordering store. 
• We wrote a full guide to i3 battery replacements.

&#;

Chevy Bolt Battery Replacement Cost

As you may be aware, currently all Chevy Bolt batteries are set to be replaced under a recall for a manufacturing defect in their batteries. Perhaps it can help you get a sense of when the pre-recall Chevy Bolt batteries may no longer have met your needs and may need a battery replacement. Below are some examples of Chevy battery replacements costs prior to the recall. 

• According to a post on chevybolt.org, a dealership quoted a Chevy Bolt owner in November $16,250 for a battery replacement, with $870 for labor. Given that Chevy Bolt batteries are rated at 60 kWh, that equates to approximately $271/kWh, about 68% higher than the average price. 
• According to Chevrolet themselves, in they reported that the price of a battery pack for a Chevy Bolt was $262/kWh.
• According to a Greencars report, a 66 kWh Chevrolet Bolt battery costs ~$16,000, or $250/kWh. 
  

&#;

Chevy Volt Battery Replacement Cost

• According to a Greencars report, 16 kWh Chevy Volt batteries cost ~$4,000 to replace, about $240/kWh. 
• A - Chevy Volt Remanufactured Battery Pack is priced at $6,000 at Greentec Auto. These batteries have 17.1 kWh of capacity, putting this price at $350/kWh in dollars. Sold with new modules, that same battery pack is priced at $8,000, placing it at $467/kWh in . 
• For the - Chevy Volt, battery packs are priced at roughly $3,000 on ebay. These batteries are 18.4 kWh, equating to $163/kWh to $152/kWh. 
• There can be a long waitlist for Volt batteries!
  

&#;

Hyundai Ioniq PHEV Replacement Cost

A replacement battery for a or Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid has an MSRP of $2,853.53 as of August . With a battery size of 1.56 kWh in a Hyundai Ioniq HEV, that equates to ~$1,829/kWh, approximately % more than the $137/kWh average cited above. 
&#;

Nissan Leaf Battery Replacement Cost

We also wrote an entire LEAF guide to battery replacement. While it has some of the same info, it could be helpful to dive a bit deeper.

According to a post in the MyNissanLeaf.com forum, as of Jan 30, , the cost of labor and replacement of a 24 kWh battery in a Nissan Leaf is $5,500. It appears the battery itself would cost $4,500, placing the $/kWh at $187/kWh, which is 36% above the quoted $137/kWh price. 

• According to a Greencars report, the Nissan Leaf 40 kWh battery costs $5,500 or about $137/kWh, which is right on target for the average price. 
• A Nissan Leaf owner in Canada reported that a dealership quoted him for $15,000 CAD for a replacement battery. 

According to a report from Cashcarbuyers, a replacement pack for a LEAF can run you the following, without labor:

• 30 kWh pack price ranges from $3,500 to $4,500, at most $150/kWh. 
• 40 kWh pack price ranged between $6,500 and $7,500, at most $187.5/kWh.
• 62 kWh battery pack is expected to be between $8,500 and $9,500, at most $153/kWh.

However, anecdotal data from our own Recurrent drivers in the past few years shows that demand - and price - for LEAF replacements has actually grown quite a bit since . A Facebook group dedicated to LEAF battery replacements reports that swapping out an old 24 kWh pack with a new 62 kWh pack retails at $19,000. In Atlanta, replacement packs with installation are going for $12,000 for a 40 kWh pack installed, and $16,500 for a 62 kWh. At these prices, you're looking at $266 - $300/ kWh, including labor.

&#;

Tesla Model 3 Battery Replacement Cost

Current Automotive posted the receipt of one customer&#;s replacement of a remanufactured 75kWh battery in a Tesla Model 3:

• Battery: $13,500
• Labor $2,299.27
• Total: $15,799.27
  

This equates to $180/kWh which is about 31% higher than the Bloomberg cited average of $137/kWh. Since Tesla Model 3s are so new, there is likely very little data on repair costs in the public domain. 

However, there is the occasional accident that requires a battery replacement in a Model 3. Based on data we've seen for more recent, accident-related replacements, the total amount has come down to $10 - $12,000, with 80-90% of that going for the battery itself. However, it is encouraging that the total price has dropped, landing the cost between $133/kWh - $161/kWh. This is more in line with the Bloomberg estimate.

See the full breakdown of Model 3 replacement costs.

&#;

Tesla Model S Battery Replacement Cost

We wrote an article dedicated to Tesla battery replacements, but you can get the summary here.

• In April , FindMyElectric reported that there were a few cases where the price of the batteries cost $12,000 to $15,000. 
• A used Tesla Model S owner reported that a full battery pack replacement would have cost $20,000, including labor, in Dec . 
• On Tesla motors club in , there are two reports of owners of ( and ) Model S&#;s being quoted $22k for full battery replacements out of warranty. 
  

&#;

VW e-Golf Battery Replacement Cost

A replacement battery for a to VW e-Golf is quoted as $23,442.91 by Pignataro VW as of August . Given that the e-golf battery pack is 35.8 kWh, that equates to $654/kWh, a whopping 477% more expensive than the average price. 

Proactive tips to avoid replacement and costly service

It should not be a surprise that treating your battery nicely can expand its life and delay replacement. Here are some tips on how to give your battery the TLC it needs. 

• Avoid extreme high or low battery levels.
• Limit DC fast charging to special occasions.
• Small, frequent charges are better than large, infrequent charges. 
• Get your battery to room temperature before charging when possible. Usually this is accomplished by your vehicle automatically once plugged in. 
• Park in the shade during warm months to keep your battery cooler. 
• A/C and heat use a lot of energy so consider preheating your car while it&#;s plugged in or using seat warmers.
• Accelerate slowly to increase range. 
• Avoid excessive highway speeds.
• Check out your manuals battery maintenance tips.
• Swap your tires for more efficient tires; seasonally appropriate.
  

Are you an EV owner concerned about how much an EV battery costs?

Join the Recurrent EV community for free personalized battery reports on your vehicle. Not only do you get reports that offer insights into how well your EV is doing, but you contribute to a fast growing community of EV drivers who want to help others benefit from EVs, too! &#;

&#;

For EV

Shoppers

Get a Report by VIN

If you want to learn more, please visit our website Lithium Battery.